Chaos in the Middle East: Is Trump Playing 4D Chess or Just Cleaning His Room?

Clean Your Room Mr. President!

Well well well looks like the situation in the Middle East is about as tidy as a teenager's bedroom – and just as likely to erupt into screaming matches. Trump bless his heart is taking a 'sharply more negative tone' with Iran. He's pulling out personnel hinting at danger and generally stirring the pot like a caffeinated chimpanzee in a spice factory. It appears that Trump decided to enforce some much needed order in his geopolitical room but whether he is equipped to be doing so is another thing entirely eh?

The Art of the (No) Deal

Now I've always said 'You can't just be harmless you have to be dangerous' – and Trump seems to be taking that to heart. He wants a deal with Iran a 'political and diplomatic win'. Iran wants relief from sanctions which let's be honest have crippled their economy like a Marxist professor trying to build IKEA furniture. Yet here we are seemingly further away than ever mired in accusations and mutual distrust. Seems like someone forgot to articulate their damn vision! You have to negotiate with the chaos… or risk being consumed by it.

Enrichment? I Barely Know Her!

The real sticking point as always is uranium enrichment. Can Iran enrich uranium? That is the question. Trump in a move that would make my inner Freudian analyst blush wants 'zero enrichment'. Iran insists on its right to a civilian nuclear energy program. It's like arguing over who gets the last slice of pizza only the pizza is a potential nuclear weapon. Remember chaos is opportunity...but only if you're prepared. The question is: are we?

IAEA? More Like I A E I O U... Sometimes Y

The IAEA the UN's nuclear watchdog has declared Iran in non compliance for the first time in twenty years. Twenty years! That's practically a lifetime in geopolitical terms. Meanwhile Israel is eyeing military action and analysts are pondering the potential impact of a conflict involving a country nearly four times the size of Iraq. The phrase 'understated' comes to mind. It's a bit like saying 'Water is slightly damp'.

Compromise: A Dish Best Served... Eventually?

There are proposals for compromise floating around like lost balloons at a children's party. Regional nuclear consortiums mothballed facilities interim enrichment allowances – the usual buffet of half measures and vague promises. But the Iranians it seems want clarity on sanctions relief and they want it now. Like a toddler demanding candy before dinner. Sanctions hurt they have crippled Iran and nobody wants to continue being harmed least of all Iran I am certain of it. And I can not say that I blame them!

So What Now Bucko?

So where does this leave us? Well buckle up buttercup. We're in for a bumpy ride. Trump's brinkmanship could either lead to a real deal or a real disaster. Iran's threats to strike U.S. assets are shall we say 'tremendously significant.' It's a high stakes game of chicken and the only certainty is that someone is going to swerve – or crash. In the meantime I suggest cleaning your room thinking long and hard about the meaning of responsibility and maybe investing in some oil futures. Just in case.