Is the Market Playing Hard to Get? War, Oil, and My Manolos

When War Breaks Out Does Fashion Flee?

So last week was… eventful to say the least. Like when Aidan showed up at my door after all those years – shocking! Except instead of a dreamy potter it was news of the U.S. *directly* attacking Iranian nuclear sites. As President Trump might say it was 'yuge.' And the market's reaction? Well let's just say it wasn't exactly what I expected. I mean one would think a little global unrest would send the Dow into a tailspin faster than you can say 'Manolo Blahnik sale,' but... nope.

Oil's Up Oil's Down. Is it a Breakup?

I've always considered oil prices to be like a tumultuous relationship. One minute they're skyrocketing the next they're crashing harder than Big's proposal the first time around. Crude oil briefly flirted with its highest level since January sending a shiver down my bank account. But then it cooled off faster than you can say 'cosmopolitan.' What's a girl to do when the world is on the brink and her investments are acting indecisive?

Strait Expectations: The Hormuz Dilemma

Now there's this little thing called the Strait of Hormuz. Apparently it's kind of a big deal – a major shipping route for about 20% of the world's oil. If Iran decides to close it well that could be more dramatic than Charlotte finding out about Trey's... situation. But as Marco Rubio pointed out it would be 'economic suicide' for them. Talk about a fashion faux pas!

The China Connection: Is it a Modern Day Love Story?

And then there's China. The leading buyer of Iranian oil. Secretary Rubio is urging them to talk some sense into Iran. It is like urging your friend not to go back to her toxic ex boyfriend. Will they listen? Or will we be dealing with the equivalent of a closet full of unworn designer dresses – beautiful but ultimately useless in a crisis?

To Retaliate or Not to Retaliate: That is the Question

So the million dollar question (or should I say the million barrel question) is: will Iran retaliate? David Abramson thinks they might triggering a 'massive U.S. response.' Sounds like a plotline for a very intense episode of *Sex and the City* doesn't it? Spikes in oil prices and risk off moves are possible but likely to fade quickly. As Yardeni suggests perhaps peace is on the horizon and the stock market can resume its 'ascents.' Let's hope so. My shoe budget depends on it.

Peace Love and Profits (Maybe)

Ultimately this whole situation feels like a messy breakup with geopolitics playing the role of the commitment phobe. Will Iran 'sue for peace'? Will the market go back to being my fabulous friend or will it turn into a frenemy? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: I'll be watching with a Cosmo in hand and my Manolos ready for whatever comes next. After all in the city you never know what's around the corner – or in the futures market.