Trump's Twitter Oil Barometer: A Barrel of Laughs and Economic Woe?

The Curious Case of the Tweeting President

Ah the modern world! Where presidents opine on everything from geopolitical strategy to well the price of oil all within the character limit of a tweet. Since joining Twitter in 2009 former President Donald Trump has posted more than 200 times about oil prices. It seems the digital age has indeed brought us closer to our leaders though perhaps not always in ways we anticipated. One wonders does he also tweet about the migratory patterns of the Arctic tern? 'Here we see the rare 'Tweeting President' in his natural habitat a glowing screen illuminating his… well you know.' Quite fascinating really.

Goldman's Got Gas (Data That Is)

Now Goldman Sachs those canny observers of the financial ecosystem have diligently sifted through this digital detritus on Twitter X and Truth Social. What did they unearth? A clear preference it seems. Our former president it appears has called for lower oil prices a staggering 213 times versus a mere 15 appeals for higher prices. It appears our former president has strong views on petroleum economics. One might even say he's a bit of an 'oil whisperer'. Or perhaps just a persistent tweeter. As I always say 'An understanding of the natural world and what's in it is a source of not only a great curiosity but great fulfillment'.

The Sweet Spot: $40 to $50 a Barrel

Goldman's analysis suggests that when U.S. crude trades between $40 and $50 per barrel the presidential tweeting tapers off. This they surmise is the price range he fancies. Above $50 the calls for lower prices begin anew. Below $30? Suddenly the cry for more U.S. production echoes through the digital canyons. It's a fascinating dance this interplay between policy and the price of black gold. It reminds one of the elaborate mating rituals of the Birds of Paradise – all showmanship and calculated moves.

Drill Baby Drill... to $50?

According to Peter Navarro former trade advisor the 'drill baby drill' mantra was all about pushing oil down to $50 a barrel in the name of fighting inflation. Ah the noble fight against rising costs! It all sounds so simple doesn't it? A bit like saying 'Just tell the lions to eat more salad and the zebras will be fine.' The best laid plans of mice and men eh? 'The question is are we happy to suppose that our grandchildren may never be able to see an elephant except in a picture book?' The shale industry might be asking themselves the same question.

Shale's Shaky Ground

But here's the rub. Goldman points out that the U.S. shale industry needs at least $51 a barrel just to break even. So Trump's preferred price point? Potentially damaging. As U.S. crude dips into the $60s supply growth sputters edging closer to the producers' financial precipice. On May 5th U.S. crude hit a four year low of $57.13 a confluence of Trump's tariffs recession fears and OPEC+'s supply surge. One can almost hear the anxious murmurs of shale executives not unlike the worried chirps of penguins anticipating a leopard seal.

A Glimmer of Hope Perhaps?

However there's a twist in our tale. Recent tariff reductions between the U.S. and China have provided a glimmer of hope nudging prices back above $63. A rebound perhaps? But Goldman still forecasts a decline in U.S. crude supply in the coming years. The saga continues a complex interplay of economics policy and the unpredictable nature of global markets. As I always say 'Cherish the natural world because you're a part of it and you depend on it'. And it seems so does the US economy!