Israel Strikes Iran: Will Oil Prices Survive? (Spoiler: Maybe Not!)

Improvise Adapt Overcome... and Buy Gas!

Right so Israel's just given Iran a bit of a 'wake up call,' if you can call airstrikes a wake up call. More like a full on alarm clock made of dynamite! Oil prices have gone bananas spiking faster than I can skin a squirrel. Brent Crude's up WTI's up – everyone's getting a piece of the action... except your wallet probably. Remember in the wild resources are scarce. Same goes for your bank account when gas prices go up! Time to start hoarding those pennies folks. It's time to adapt. Or maybe learn to love the taste of squirrel. Just kidding... mostly.

The Strait of Hormuz: Nature's Chokepoint (and Our Economic One)

Now the Strait of Hormuz is a bit of a dodgy area. One fifth of the world's oil flows through there which makes it like the jugular vein of the global economy. If Iran decides to get grumpy and block it well things could get messy faster than you can say 'survival of the fittest.' Ellen Wald reckons Iran won't risk it. Good for us! But never underestimate the ability of a cornered animal – or a cornered nation – to do something unpredictable. Stay alert stay alive and maybe invest in a good bicycle just in case. And remember dehydration kills faster than a geopolitical crisis so drink lots of water folks!

Retaliation Roulette: A Game No One Wins

The big question now is will Iran retaliate? Probably. Will that retaliation make things worse? Almost certainly. Oil investors are jittery fearing attacks on Israeli or American targets. It's a game of geopolitical roulette and the odds aren't exactly in our favor. Andy Lipow calls it a potential 'major military escalation.' I call it a good reason to start practicing your bartering skills. Canned goods and clean water might become the new currency folks.

China to the Rescue? (Or Maybe Not)

Wald also says China won't want any oil disruptions which is reassuring...ish. They'll bring their 'economic power to bear' on Iran. But what does that even mean? A strongly worded letter? A stern look? Let's be honest in the wild you can't rely on anyone but yourself. And maybe China... if they're feeling particularly benevolent. Either way don't count on anyone else to get you through the tough times. Prepare to bug out! Just in case...

Emergency Stocks: A False Sense of Security?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is waving around its 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stocks like a magic wand. Sure it's a nice safety net but let's be real. In a full blown crisis that supply will disappear faster than a chocolate bar in front of a hungry Bear Grylls. 'Markets are well supplied today but we're ready to act if needed,' says the IEA's Fatih Birol. That's great Fatih but I'd rather have a flint and steel a good knife and the ability to find water in the desert. Self reliance is the ultimate survival tool remember that!

The Bear's Bottom Line: Stay Prepared Stay Vigilant!

So what's the takeaway? The situation's volatile. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate more wildly than a monkey in a hurricane. Geopolitical risks are 'tangible and imminent.' And the world is a dangerous place. But hey that's what makes it interesting! Stay informed stay alert and always have a backup plan. And maybe learn how to hotwire a car... just kidding! (Mostly.) Now if you'll excuse me I'm off to find a reliable source of alternative fuel. Beetle juice anyone? Remember: Stay alive!