Messi Predicts Trade Apocalypse! Will Tariffs Ruin the World Economy?

Another Goal...But This Time It's for Trade!

Hola amigos! It's Leo Messi here trading my cleats for a keyboard (for a moment at least!). You know me always scoring goals but today I’m tackling something a little different: global trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) those folks who usually deal with boring stuff like import duties instead of beautiful goals have dropped a bombshell. Apparently the outlook for global trade is how do you say… *mala onda*? "The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply," they said. Sounds like someone just missed a penalty kick in the World Cup final!

North America? More Like North 'Uh Oh!'

So what's the fuss? Well it seems like some powerful people are slapping tariffs on everything. Tariffs for those of you who don't speak economist are like giving the other team a free kick… repeatedly. The WTO predicts that world merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025. Ouch! Especially hard hit? North America. They are anticipating a 12.6% drop in exports this year! That's like me missing every shot for an entire season. *Dios mio*!

Risky Business: Trade Edition

And it gets worse! The WTO warns of “severe downside risks.” If things go really south (like when I accidentally wore my left boot on my right foot – don't ask!) we could see a much sharper decline of 1.5%. This would particularly hurt the export oriented least developed countries. It's like watching the underdog team get constantly fouled… not fair at all! But hey 'They want me to mark them closely? Let them. I am going to dribble them all the same' That's my philosophy.

A Strong Start Then a Stumble

Funny enough 2024 was a great year for trade! Merchandise trade grew by 2.9% and commercial services trade expanded by 6.8%. It was like Barcelona winning the Champions League again! But now? That 0.2% decline for 2025 is almost three percentage points lower than expected. It’s a 'No es facil' moment as we say. It's like starting a match strong and then getting a red card for… existing.

Trump's Trade Tango: A Risky Dance

Ah yes the elephant in the room or rather the *presidente* in the White House. Apparently some of these tariffs are thanks to Mr. Trump's “reciprocal” approach. He hit China especially hard and China hit back. It’s like a penalty shootout where everyone keeps missing! But then seeing the havoc he 'temporarily' lowered the tariffs for 90 days. A bit like scoring an own goal and then asking for a replay.

Silver Linings? Maybe Just a Glimmer

So is there any hope? Well the WTO says the disruption in U.S. China trade could lead to “significant trade diversion.” Basically other countries might get a chance to step up their export game. It’s like a smaller team suddenly getting the chance to play in the Champions League. But *ojo* this also means increased competition. It's going to be a tough game for everyone! But remember what i always say: 'You have to fight to reach your dream. You have to sacrifice and work hard for it.'