Oil Prices Surge Amidst Hormuz Strait Uncertainty A Dark Omen

A Price Surge We Have Not Seen Since...

The Force is strong and so are the oil prices. A disturbance in the Force or perhaps just the Strait of Hormuz has sent crude oil prices soaring. International benchmark Brent crude has risen 2.45% to $102.57 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 2.51% to $95.85 per barrel. It seems the market is feeling the dark side of geopolitical uncertainty. As I always say "The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force... and a stable oil supply."

Mixed Messages From the Empire

The Trump administration like a Sith Lord with conflicting directives is sending mixed signals. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims Iranian oil tankers are passing through the Strait while reports suggest a U.S. led coalition will escort ships. President Trump himself admits the coalition isn't fully in place urging other nations to join. Perhaps they find his lack of clarity disturbing. Like Obi Wan said "In my experience there is no such thing as luck" only calculated risk and these messages introduce quite a bit of risk into the equation. The recent events remind me of the article Atlassian Cuts Deep Navigating AI Seas where companies navigate a sea of uncertainty.

Disruptions to the Global Oil Supply Chain

The Force is not the only thing being choked; ship movements through this vital route have plunged after Iranian attacks. This has caused one of the largest disruptions to global oil supply in history. "The sheer scale of the oil supply disruption makes it difficult for the market to find an adequate solution," says Warren Patterson of ING. It's a grim reminder that a single point of failure can bring even the mightiest economy to its knees. This disruption is quite upsetting.

Naval Escorts a Trap?

The U.S. administration touts insurance guarantees and naval escorts yet neither has materialized. Patterson notes that escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz would leave naval ships vulnerable to attack. It seems the U.S. is waiting for Iran's ability to launch attacks to diminish. Perhaps they're waiting for a weakness a fatal flaw in the enemy's defenses. A pathway as it were to unleash the Dark Side without reprisal.

The Vital Artery

The Strait of Hormuz located between Oman and Iran is a vital artery for the global oil trade. Roughly 13 million barrels per day passed through it in 2025 representing about 31% of all seaborne crude flows according to Kpler. This choke point is more important than the plans to the Death Star. Control of this route is essential for maintaining balance in the galaxy or at least the global economy. I find their lack of concern disturbing.

The Price of Freedom (and Oil)

The U.S. has been urging allies to send military forces to protect tanker traffic through the strait. Some nations are enthusiastic others less so. Trump has expressed frustration that some are reluctant to participate particularly those the U.S. has been protecting for decades. As I've always said "I find your lack of faith disturbing." In this case the lack of participation is equally disturbing. Perhaps they need a demonstration of the power of the Force... or a simple reminder of their dependence on a stable oil supply.