Oil Price Rollercoaster Trump's Talk Rattles Markets

Trump's Bargain Bin Diplomacy

Alright listen up. Trump says he's negotiating with Iran. Says they're talking sense. Sounds like he's trying to wheel and deal like he's buying up Atlantic City real estate again. Makes you wonder what kind of 'sense' they're talking. Maybe they offered him a gold plated toilet for the White House? As I always say "What's the play?" Here the play seems to be calming the markets at least for now.

Strait of Hormuz Stand Off

The Strait of Hormuz that's the real pressure point. Iran's posturing saying they'll let "non hostile vessels" through provided they check in with the local bullies. Classic power play. This disruption is the biggest in decades. And speaking of disruption ever try getting a decent night's sleep when the world's about to blow up? Maybe we should look at how Consistent Bedtimes Unlock Peak Productivity Like a Box of Chocolates because even I need my eight hours to outmaneuver the next crisis right?

The Goldman Gamble

Goldman Sachs is saying near term price movements are all about the 'what ifs'—the geopolitical nightmares that keep traders sweating. They're talking about a 'risk premium.' Well I deal in risk. It's my oxygen. But even I know that too much uncertainty is bad for business. You need to be able to see the chessboard clearly not through a fog of war.

Iranian Poker Face

Iran's mission to the UN is playing it cool talking about 'coordination' for ships passing through the Strait. But don't be fooled. This is about control. They're testing the waters seeing how far they can push without triggering a full blown war. "Money is power," and they know controlling that waterway is like holding all the aces.

Geopolitical Chess Moves

The New York Times says the U.S. sent Iran a 15 point proposal to end the war. Fifteen points? Sounds like a bad negotiation. You go in high then you come down. What are they amateurs? And Israel's in the mix too apparently not entirely on board. This isn't checkers; it's multi dimensional chess with nukes on the board.

The Bottom Line

So where does this leave us? Oil prices are down but the tension is thicker than a Wall Street bonus after a record quarter. Until there's real stability and by 'real' I mean stability on my terms expect the markets to keep doing the jitterbug. Remember "I like the things I buy to hold their value." Right now oil's about as stable as a house of cards in a hurricane.