Goolsbee's Grim Inflation Forecast No Cuts Until Proof

The Heisenbergian Uncertainty of Inflation

Alright let's talk shop. Austan Goolsbee see he's playing it smart. Says no rate cuts until he sees inflation heading south for real. And he's right. Remember when they thought inflation was just passing through? "Transitory," they called it. Turns out that was a lie just like Skyler telling me she loved my beard. You don't front load rate cuts when you ain't sure that's amateur hour. Heisenberg doesn't do amateur hour.

3%? That's Not Acceptable!

Three percent inflation? Goolsbee's not having it. Neither am I. We promised two percent and we deliver two percent. None of this half measure nonsense. Like selling meth that's only 90% pure. "Stalling out at 3% is not a safe place to be," he says. Damn right it ain't. It's like being almost rich almost successful almost...alive. This reminds me of the bold move by a fellow chemist with Paramount to acquire Warner Bros Discovery you can read more about that in this article Paramount's Bold Bid Sweetens Pot for Warner Bros Discovery Acquisition but you know what? No one gets to this point without confronting very serious risks or they are simply not successful or in his case just doesn't 'cook'.

Housing Inflation: The Silent Killer

Now here's the kicker: housing inflation. Goolsbee points out it ain't about tariffs it's something deeper something stickier. Just like the empire business it's about supply and demand. You gotta be vigilant he says. You gotta watch it control it. Like a chemist controlling his cook. You let it get out of hand and BOOM you're cleaning up a mess with hydrofluoric acid.

Waller's Waltz: A Slightly Softer Stance

Christopher Waller another Fed head he's a bit softer on the rates. Says the labor market might be stronger than we thought. Maybe the labor market is some people's blue sky but that's not me. But even he admits the jobs data might be just noise. So what does he know? The point is until we are 100% that this inflation is in the rearview mirror let's just focus on cooking.

The Market's Murky Crystal Ball

The markets think the Fed will hold until June maybe July. Futures traders playing the odds trying to predict the future. But Heisenberg doesn't predict the future he creates it. And right now the future looks like a whole lot of waiting. Patience is a virtue but sometimes it's just stagnation. Just like when Jesse doesn't follow the recipe.

Lisa Cook and the Chorus of Caution

And then there's Lisa Cook another Fed Governor adding her voice to the mix. Seems like everyone's preaching caution these days. Well I am cautious. Cautious about trusting anyone in this business. Inflation like power is a dangerous game. You think you have it under control and then BAM it bites you in the ass. Just like that DEA agent Hank Schrader...